Air power assumptions shot down over Lebanon By Dan Williams
There is no, nor can there ever be, a military solution to this crisis …
This report however is more about the technique of modern warfare and the arms market
Source: Reuters/ AlertNet :: 02 Aug 2006 17:28:55 GMT
TEL AVIV, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Israel’s failure so far to curb Hizbollah rocket attacks using its arsenal of jets, helicopter gunships and unmanned drones has cast doubt on the theory that heavy reliance on air power is the best way to win a modern war.
Air force failures in the face of the militarily far less advanced Lebanese guerrilla group could also hurt Israeli exports of weapons systems whose main selling point is that they have been tested in battle.
And the hard-won reputations of Israeli pilots and planners have been tarnished by the heavy civilian toll in Lebanon.
For now, Israel’s top brass have avoided a public reckoning, noting the air force has carried out 7,000-odd sorties — a scale that must inevitably mean some mistakes.
But eyebrows are already being raised abroad, especially in arms markets dominated by Israeli exports worth more than $3 billion a year and among strategists who long thought air power the most precise and reliable means of besting any enemy.
“We are talking about the holy grail of future combat, and Israel did a great job of building sophisticated, world-leading systems based on the understanding they were born in battle,” said Robert Hewson, editor of Jane’s Air-Launched Weapons.
“This is certainly going to make people question the salesmen a bit more, because it appears that in the hour of need this stuff is not working as advertised,” he said.
Barbara Opall-Rome of the Defense News journal predicted upsets to Israel’s major export deals, including a recent multibillion-dollar package ordered by its top client, India.
She described Israel as one of a club of militarily advanced countries whose air forces take pride of place in war planning.
“Air power enthusiasts will be licking their wounds and they will surely have to go back and revise their arguments,” she said. “I’m sure there will be a lot more humility now.”
The air force chief of staff, who has in the past extolled the hi-tech capabilities of his corps, struck a different tone when trying to explain the bombing of Qana village this week, when 54 civilians were killed.
“The ability to handle this arena in a homogenous manner, to hit the terrorists alone and at one go, is limited,” said Brigadier-General Amir Eshel, who blamed Hizbollah for hiding its personnel in heavily populated areas.
BOOTS ON THE GROUND
Using air forces to carry a campaign goes back at least to World War Two.
But with the emphasis in more recent conflicts being on reducing civilian casualties and establishing quick control of conquered foes, many Western military planners are increasingly loath to dispense with ground forces.
Serbian forces largely managed to hunker down and survive the NATO bombing of Kosovo in 1999. The hundreds of innocents killed by the air strikes also meant a backlash later in Europe.
U.S. forces, having mainly relied on air power during the first Gulf War of 1991, brought in far more tanks and troops during the 2003 push that toppled Saddam Hussein.
But with an Iraqi insurgency raging since, the Pentagon was still criticised for not putting enough “boots on the ground”.
“There is a growing realisation that, after the air campaign, you need men in body armour and tanks to finish the job,” Hewson said.
Air power is perceived as a means of reducing the risk to ground forces — a major domestic concern in Israel given its dependence on teenaged conscripts.
Israeli military planners also say advanced aerial surveillance systems and precision-guided weapons mean that Hizbollah guerrillas can be targeted while civilians in the vicinity are largely spared. But most of some 640 Lebanese killed have been civilians.
“What matters in such situations is not killing the people you are trying to liberate,” said Hewson. “This is the big strategic failure of the Israeli campaign.”
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert this week ordered an expanded ground sweep of Lebanon. It remains to be seen how the troops will fare against Hizbollah guerrillas emboldened by what they see as the enemy’s reluctance to fight face-to-face.
Setbacks in quelling Hizbollah could cost Olmert diplomatically as well and bolster the group’s backers, Iran and Syria, which are viewed by Israel’s U.S. ally as shared foes.
“Israeli Defense Forces clearly underestimated Hizbollah’s capabilities and overestimated their ability to degrade them from the air,” editorialised the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
“American support for Israel’s strategy is far from cost-free for (U.S. President George W.) Bush, and Mr. Olmert has to understand that it won’t continue if he lacks the will to prevail as rapidly as militarily possible.”
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